US President Donald Trump is wagering that an ailing Iran is so destabilized by a tumultuous 18 months in the Middle East that it may finally be ready to give up its nuclear program.
The fresh effort to solve one of the White House's and the Mideast's most sensitive foreign policy conundrums will get underway in earnest on Saturday when Trump's Middle East special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are set to meet in Oman.
Trump claims he seeks a diplomatic solution, but threatens Iran will be in "great danger" if talks fail. But Iran's advances on its nuclear program since Trump withdrew from an Obam upa-era agreement in his initial term make it difficult to envision a path back to a deal, and experts say the possibility of US military action against Iranian nuclear facilities is greater than it has been in years.
"I want Iran to be a great, wonderful, happy country, but they can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump stated Friday evening aboard Air Force One as he left for Florida for the weekend.
The timing is indeed fraught, but the White House is finding encouraging indications that the time may be ripe. The pressure comes as Iran has experienced a string of massive setbacks that has seemingly placed Tehran in a weakened bargaining position.
The military strength of Iranian-supported proxy militias Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been largely weakened by the forces of Israel. US air strikes, on the other hand, against Iran-supported Houthi fighters in Yemen have bombed oil refineries, airports and missile facilities.
Israel also carried out strikes against Iran in October that damaged facilities linked to Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. And in December, Iran saw Syrian leader Bashar Assad - Tehran's closest Mideast ally - ousted after more than two decades in power.
Iran's leaders are also under domestic strain with the economy smothered by years of sanctions from abroad. The US Treasury Department imposed a fresh round of sanctions last week on five entities and one person that American officials state have central roles in Iran's nuclear program.
"All eyes are on Oman by Iranians closely monitoring this and maybe even wishing this would affect the economy's state," said Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, a Washington-based think tank.
But whether the US can persuade Iran with a sufficiently large carrot for it to make concessions to satisfy Trump's requirements that any possible deal go further in preventing Tehran from building nuclear weapons than the deal reached during Democratic President Barack Obama's presidency is yet to be seen.
In accordance with the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, Iran was only allowed to keep a limited amount of uranium enriched to 3.67%. Now, it has enough to produce several nuclear weapons if it wishes and has some material enriched to as much as 60%, a brief, technical distance from weapons-grade levels.
It is unknown if negotiations will be in person
It will be represented by Araghchi and the United States by Witkoff at the Saturday meeting in the capital city of Oman. The two are not sure if they will speak directly to each other.
Trump has stated the two sides would engage in "direct" talks. However, Iranian officials have maintained that the proposal is for "indirect talks," that an Omani intermediary would pass messages between Witkoff's and Araghchi's teams sequestered in separate rooms.
Either way, the news that the two sides would speak - announced by Trump in the Oval Office this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - was something of an unexpected surprise.
Trump has been demanding direct talks while issuing warnings of "consequences" for Iran if it fails to make a move towards closing the deal.
Iran, however, has provided conflicting messages regarding the value of the talks, saying that talking would be pointless while under the threat of threats.
Following Trump's recent letter to Iran's supreme leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, requesting direct negotiations, Tehran rejected the appeal but left the door open for the possibility of indirect talks.
President Masoud Pezeshkian once more vowed this week that Iran's "not after a nuclear bomb" and even intimated that Tehran might be willing to consider the possibility of direct American investment in the Islamic Republic if the nations are able to negotiate an agreement.
That was a contrast to Iran's position following its 2015 nuclear agreement, when Tehran tried to purchase American airplanes but effectively excluded US firms from entering the nation.
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